Russia and Georgia - Getting to know the latest war

I won't say that events in Georgia don't have me worried. They do. It was a terrible shock on Friday to wake up and find that a conflict that had been simmering for close to two decades had suddenly exploded into what looked like open war between Russia and the small Caucasian (as in the Caucasus Mountains, which stretch between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) state of Georgia.

I've been following the conflicts in Georgia for a while, so let me get you up to speed as best I can.

1. The Republic of Georgia - Serbia East

The joke lately has been that American news outlets really aren't covering this war because viewers/readers would think that Atlanta was under fire (again). But the reality is that not many people know or care much about this little country, and that's too bad. Georgia is a western-facing country in a region that has very few of them. Its president, Mikhail Saakashvili, was educated in the United States, and came to power in the so-called "Rose Revolution" of 2003, kicking out the old Soviet-era strongman. Georgia has been feeling around the edges of NATO, looking for a way in, and they have a contingent of troops in Iraq. They are our friends.

That said, Georgia has a lot of problems, many of them related in some way to the disintegration of the USSR in 1991. See, Georgia hasn't been an independent nation for most of the last four centuries (with a few brief exceptions). They were a part of the Russian Empire, then the Soviet Union. Like a lot of pieces of the Russian Empire, they had a lot of ethnic groups smashed together in one place. When they were part of the larger Empire, this was less of a problem. Indeed, the two big problem areas in Georgia today, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, had a lot of relative autonomy under the Soviet system.

When Georgia became independent in 1991, both of those regions declared independence of their own, despite being part of the territory of the former Georgian SSR. Georgia has been waging a low-level war to try and bring them back into the fold. The war has largely been a standoff since the 1990s.

The forces of ethnic separatism and disintegration are strong in the region (Chechnya is right over the border, for instance), and that's the basis of the current conflict. Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are de facto independent republics. Georgia has had no control over them. The reason for that is Georgia's huge neighbor to the north.

2. Enter Russia

Both the Abkhaz and South Ossetians are strongly backed by Russia. Many citizens in the breakaway republics hold Russian passports, and the Russian ruble is the unit of currency. Russian troops, acting as "peacekeepers," have been in both regions since the 1990s. Hence the stalemate.

Russia says it is protecting its citizens and the people of these two regions from Georgian bellicosity. The Russians have accused Georgia of ethnic cleansing and genocide, among other things. Georgia says the peacekeepers are just an excuse for the Russians to station their military in Georgia, and deny the Russian claims.

So on Friday August 8th, there was already a Russian military presence in what is internationally recognized as Georgian territory.

3. Okay, I know that the West had a hand in screwing this up somehow. How did we do it this time?

If this whole situation reminds you of some other recent conflict, you're probably thinking of Kosovo.

Georgia and South Ossetia/Abkhazia are the mirror image of Serbia and Kosovo. If you remember, the Russians strongly, strongly opposed the Kosovans unilateral declaration of independence. This is for a few reasons. First, Russia is traditionally the protector of the Serbs. This special relationship goes back to Ottoman times. If you check the Serbian flag, you'll see it bears something of a resemblance to the Russian one. The double-headed eagle of Byzantium, which is on the Serbian flag, is also used by the Russians. The Serbs are also Orthodox Christians, and Russia considers itself the leading Orthodox nation.

The other reason is that Russia fears that if Kosovo can declare independence and be recognized by the international community, there is little to stop Chechnya and other ethnic minority states to do the same. That's why Kosovo as an independent country, recognized by the United States and others but not Russia or Serbia, may not have been such a great idea after all.

Part of the blowback from Kosovo is that there is now a school of thought at the Kremlin which says that if the West can recognize Kosovo, then Russia should recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In any event, things have been getting tenser over the past few months, but no one seems to have seen this coming.

4. So what happened?

Man, it's hard to say. Here's what we know. On August 8th, the day the Olympics opened, Georgian troops entered South Ossetia, presumably on a mission to retake the renegade province. The timing here is pretty suspicious. Usually there's this thing called the Olympic truce which is supposed to stop all fighting while the Olympics are happening, and both Russia's President and Prime Minister (Putin) were away.

But Russia responded immediately by sending thousands of troops over the border to "support" peacekeeping operations. Russian planes bombed targets in Georgia, which could include a military airport outside Georgia's capital, Tblisi. Georgian artillery and planes seem to have done massive damage to the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali. Civilian casualties are high, and fighting was fierce. Fighters were said to be coming from Russia and Abkhazia to help.

American and world diplomats, including the Chinese, have called nonstop for a cease-fire.

6. What's happening now?

Georgia has been defeated. They are calling it a strategic withdrawal to protect civilians, but they were frankly overwhelmed by the Russians. The Russians now control South Ossetia. Georgia has been frantically trying to call a cease-fire, but the Russians have not yet complied.

7. Now what?

I have no idea. This could spread. Could we get involved? God, I hope not. American responses have been mixed. No one seems to know how to handle this. Should the Russians withdraw? Should Georgia give up on South Ossetia? What about the civilians? George Bush has been busy enjoying the Olympics, although he and PM Putin had some discussions on the issue.

There are some rumors that if this spreads, Ukraine could get involved. But what I think is going to happen is that Russia is going to drop the hammer on Georgia for a day or so more, and then agree to the cease fire. And why not? Their point has been made. Georgia is screwed. Abkhazia and South Ossetia will not be part of Georgia for the foreseeable future.

8. Who is in charge?

There's been a lot of speculation about who was the big dog in Russia, Prime Minister Putin or President Medvedev. We have our answer. It was Putin who has been making speeches about this, it was Putin who was in talks at the Olympics, and it was Putin who went to Vladikavkaz, near the border, to rally the Russians.

Medvedev is nowhere to be found. Apparently he is on vacation. Krushchev went on vacation, once. He never came back--at least not as the leader of the Soviet Union.

9. Is this about oil?

No. Don't let people fool you. The Russians may have attacked a pipeline in Georgia which bypasses Russia, but Russia exports enough oil that this is largely a secondary concern.

10. Anything else?

Don't forget who is really suffering here--the people of South Ossetia. In war, innocent civilians are trampled by armies, and bombed by air forces. Please think of the innocents in South Ossetia, even when the rest of the world forgets them.

You Stay Here - Richard Shindell

You stay here, I'll go look for wood.
Do not fear, I'll be back soon enough.
Do not let the fire die, neither let it burn too bright.

You stay here, I'll go look for bread.
And if I can some sugar for the kids.
Dry your eyes, I'll be all right. I know where they've laid the mines.

You stay here, I'll go look for coats.
There may still be some out on the road.
We'll wash them clean with melted snow. The kids don't ever have to know.

You stay here, I'll go look for guns.
I think I know where they've hidden some.
'Cause if the Tiger comes one night we won't go without a fight.

You stay here, I'll go look for God.
It's not so hard 'cause I know where he's not.
I will bring him back with me. Make him listen, make him see.

You stay here, I'll go look for wood.